Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
